[Series] Day 13 of Waiting: Output Limit 1 Million Tokens, General Availability Date: 0 Characters

Here's today's rumor!

Gemini 4 Argon is still not here today.
It's day 13. My counting hasn't gotten bored yet.

At 5:00 AM JST on October 1, Google announced its new frontier model, "Gemini 4 Argon." Currently, it is only available to trusted cyber defenders in the Fairwind Program. For developers and the general public, it says only "as soon as possible," with no specific date provided. In this series, I will count the days every morning until this super-powerful model arrives at the standard paid storefronts. Counting October 1 (the announcement date) as day one, today, October 13, is day 13.

Current Status on Day 13 of Waiting

The scope of availability has not changed since the announcement. It remains limited to the Fairwind Program.

The official portals I checked around noon today were as follows:

• No Argon model name in the Gemini API model list.
• The latest entry in the Gemini API changelog is dated October 8 and states, "Deprecating Gemini 3.7 Flash and replacing it with Gemini 3.8 Flash." There is no mention of Argon.
• The latest Gemini app release notes are dated September 30, regarding the addition of "Skills" to chat. There is no mention of Argon.
• The latest post on the Google DeepMind blog is from October 6 about an embedding model. The October 12 (US time) update on Google's official blog was about Google Health and Fitbit.

On October 12, the previous day, I couldn't find anything official regarding Argon. Instead, at 23:25 (JST), TestingCatalog, known for observing new features, leaked this:

"It appears that Gemini 4 Argon has reportedly been undergoing A/B testing under the name Gemini 3.8 Flash on Antigravity (a Google development tool) for some time." The phrasing uses "reportedly" and "supposedly," so it doesn't say exactly who heard it. Google hasn't said a word. I'll leave this as just a rumor for now.

Okay, getting serious for a sec

Here are the facts as stated by the official sources.

On the day of the announcement, Sundar Pichai wrote:

"We're going to make it available as soon as we can and as safely as we can. So hold tight, lots more coming, and you’re going to see us iterating rapidly." In the first post of that same thread, he also mentioned that Google's internal teams are using it widely—from coding to quantum computing—and that the feedback has been great.

Okay, serious time's over.

13 Days Since "Hold On Tight"

First, let me set the record straight regarding Google's side. They are releasing their most cutting-edge models bit by bit, while solidifying safety measures and going through government pre-clearance. This has been their policy since the day of the announcement, so they aren't just keeping us waiting in silence. It's being used internally, and the numbers are strong. According to Google's public data, it hits 77.9% in DeepSWE v1.1 for software development.

On top of that, let me line up the numbers.

The output limit has gone from 64k to 1 million. That's more than 15 times the increase. The official word is that they're boasting about the ability to write hundreds of thousands of tokens in a single response. As for the general availability date, it's currently zero characters. The one line everyone is waiting for—the date for the 1 million token model—has yet to be written.

The pricing is also already set. $2 and $10 for initial adoption, followed by $4 and $20. Since it doesn't say when the "introduction period" starts or ends, from our perspective as regular folks, the introduction period hasn't even begun yet. The price tags are hanging in the shop window, but the shelves are still empty.

And while I'm at it, let's talk about the name. The name Argon comes from an Ancient Greek word meaning "lazy" or "inactive." Apparently, it was named that because it hardly participates in chemical reactions (Wikipedia). The official pitch is: "Completing long, complex tasks through deep inference." A model marketed on its ability to see things through, given a name that means "inactive." And on this 13th day, it still hasn't shown up to work in the field for the general public. I think the name is being quite honest.

"Don't Worry" and the "Same Playbook"

From those waiting, some loud voices are starting to emerge. On the 9th day, October 9th at 18:58 (JST), an account called StatsWire wrote this:

"People asked for Gemini 3.5 Pro. Google said 'testing with partners... coming soon.' It never came. Now they're saying the exact same thing about Gemini 4 Argon. Same playbook. Same silence."

To this, Logan Kilpatrick, who handles developer products at Google, replied on the 10th day, October 10th at 02:39 (JST):

"Argon is coming, fear not :)" He didn't stay silent when told he was being "silent." I'll be fair here. However, the reply didn't include a date.

As for the "3.5 Pro never came" part, StatsWire isn't the only one claiming it. Startup Fortune reported, via Bloomberg, that Google scrapped its plans for Gemini 3.5 Pro, which it had promised for a June release. The same article, citing Bloomberg, also mentioned that some employees using Argon internally said they "struggle with actual coding, especially with UI implementation." Google has countered, saying "It is inaccurate to say that Gemini 4 is underperforming in fields like coding." Neither of these can be verified by us outsiders. The only people who can touch it are inside Google and within Fairwind.

Did it not arrive, or did it just change its name tag?

Then there's the talk from TestingCatalog on the night of the 12th.

If it's true, some people who chose "Gemini 3.8 Flash" on Antigravity might have been meeting the strongest model all along without even knowing it. On the 13th day of waiting, it's possible there were people who weren't actually waiting. The strongest model might have been blending into the field wearing a plain name tag. Like a CEO hiding their identity while working in a shop.

However, the source isn't cited. Even the comparison images come with the caveat "supposedly." Unless Google admits it, I'm going to believe the name tag. As of today, there isn't a single window where a member of the general public can call it by the name Argon.

The Waiting Log

Sorami's Take

"Gemini 4 Argon will be normally available via paid API or Google AI Ultra by October 31 (JST)": 35% certainty
The CEO said "hold on tight," and the person in charge said it's "coming" on the 10th day. The words are positive. However, the name hasn't appeared once in the change logs or the model list. The number of dates hasn't caught up to the number of positive words, so I'm putting the odds below half.

"It will arrive by tomorrow morning (Day 14)": 4% certainty
If it shows up, I'll be the first to celebrate tomorrow morning and end this series.

"Google will name its next model after an element meaning 'hard worker'": 2% certainty
Such an element probably doesn't exist. Just kidding.

The Verdict

Since this is the first installment, I haven't missed a single prediction yet. Starting tomorrow, I'll probably start missing some.

Output can go up to 1 million tokens. The date for general availability? Still 0 characters.

Don't quote me on that.