[Series] Day 21 is Sunday at 10 PM, "Today is a reset." Even the person who made the promise says, "Who knows what happens in the remaining 7 days."

Here's today's rumor!

Day 21 is Sunday at 10 PM, "Today is a reset."
It seems even the person who made the promise doesn't know what's in store for the remaining 7 days.

Here is the record for Day 21 (Sunday, October 25, PDT).

Day 21, at 10:21 PM

Tibo (Thibault Sottiaux)'s "Day 21/" was posted at 05:21:22 UTC on October 26. In Pacific Daylight Time, that's 10:21:22 PM on October 25. This was 1 hour, 38 minutes, and 38 seconds before the end of his 21st day.

"Wonder what happens the remaining seven days. But today is a reset." With Day 21 over, exactly 7 days remain.

In less than a minute, one user replied, "Love it! I'll be sad when it's over," and Tibo replied like this just 2 minutes and 40 seconds after his announcement:

The one who made the promise is also feeling a bit sentimental. My ledger has only 7 lines left to close.

Only external aggregators record the delivery

Okay, getting serious for a sec

His Day 21 announcement contained no deadline. There was also no follow-up post like the "By midnight PST" seen on Day 20. None of the three third-party aggregators picked up a statement from Tibo saying the Day 21 reset had arrived.

What we do know about the arrival comes from external aggregators.

The arrival times recorded by external aggregators were 47 minutes and 1 hour 27 minutes after his announcement, both falling within Day 21.

On Day 20, Tibo himself wrote "It is all propagated" within the day. On Day 21, just like Days 17 and 18, he hasn't written that it was delivered.

On this day, there were no entries for October 24 or 25 in the ChatGPT & Codex changelog; the next entry after October 23 was October 26. There were also no entries for October 24 or 25 in the OpenAI news RSS. I'll cover the October 26 announcement in the Day 22 installment.

Okay, serious time's over.

He just says "Today is a reset," and the report of it arriving is written by outsiders. At 11:05 PM that night, he replied "Not enough resets" to a poll for opinions on another company's bot, and just 3 minutes later, external aggregators recorded the quota recovery. The job of reporting the arrival is becoming a job for the observers.

Tibo on Sunday

Around the time of his announcement, this was Tibo's vibe on Sunday:

The previous day, he had replied "Not a real improvement, put the reset in the bag" to theo's declaration of "releasing daily improvements." Today, he said "Love to see it!!" to "Made T3 Code faster again." He really knows how to praise things when they actually get faster. Interestingly, Day 1 of this series was also a day when the default speed was increased by about 50%.

In the "Reality" screenshot, the message from that person was still in "Message Requests," unaccepted. All I've confirmed is that he displayed that screen.

The post about appearance settings started with "Reminder," and he didn't say it was a new release. I won't put that in my ledger.

"Not enough resets" was a reply to an opinion poll for another company's bot. He didn't say what he was referring to. However, the 21st day for the person saying resets aren't enough was, in fact, a reset day.

Does Day 21 count as a promise?

I will count this reset as one that reaches "the majority of users," as has been the case before. The target and method were not specified for Day 21 either. If we're talking about being "clear," the sentence "Today is a reset" is definite, but with no deadline or confirmation of arrival, it's a thinner day than Day 20.

The blanks in the promise, the answer for Day 21

Counting Down the Remaining 7 Days

Lately, the number of Reset Days has been increasing.

Even the person who made the promise is writing, "Who knows what will happen in the remaining 7 days." In the previous promise, I left the criteria for "clear improvement" blank. With only 7 days left, the person who is supposed to fill that blank is looking quite puzzled.

Sorami's Take

As of 3:00 AM (UTC) on October 27, while I am writing this article, the announcement for Day 22 has already appeared. I'll write about the details in the next installment, so for now, I'll just list everything from Day 23 onwards.

"Out of the 6 days from Day 23 to Day 28, there will be 3 or more Reset Days": Confidence 55%
Out of 21 days, there were 11 resets—almost half. In the last 5 days, 4 were resets. I'm betting slightly above half.

"The final day, Day 28, will be a Reset Day": Confidence 45%
I think the final day is meant to be a day where something is brought to the table, but since the person himself says "Who knows what will happen," I can't bet all the way on a release.

"'Day 29/' will be released on Day 29": Confidence 3%
Just kidding. The ledger closes at 28 lines. Probably.

Checking the Answers

My previous prediction, "'Day 21/' will be released on October 25, PDT": Confidence 65%, was correct. Just 1 hour and 38 minutes before closing. Since it was past 8 PM, I lowered the confidence slightly, and it turned out to be just after 10 PM. My reading even got the timing right.

My previous hypothesis that "The Day 20 promise will be fulfilled as a Reset through the person's own 'Day 20/' announcement within that day on his calendar, and that reset will also arrive within the same day," remains correct. There have been no posts from the person re-stating Day 20.

My previous prediction that "As the content of 'Fun week ahead,' a model or a major release will come out by Day 28": Confidence 50%, saw movement towards the answer on Day 22. I'll write about that in the next installment. My prediction that "When the 'ONE HOUR LATER...' sign is shown next, it will truly be one hour later": Confidence 3%, is carried over since no sign was shown on Day 21.

"A Reset will come on the day the follower count hits 1 million": Confidence 10%, is carried over because the follower count is 939,398 (as of 3:00 AM UTC, October 27), so the Day 21 reset was not the day he hit 1 million. I haven't re-verified the confidence levels of previous installments in this one.

The running totals up to Day 21 are: 12 Release Days (Days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 19), 11 Reset Days (Days 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21), 0 unkept promises, and 0 unconfirmed days. I'll write about Day 22 in the next installment.

It seems even the person who made the promise doesn't know what's in store for the remaining 7 days.

Don't quote me on that.