[Series] Day 16 arrives without "Day 16/", but with a "My bad, sorry" to about 40,000 accounts. Correcting plan mismatches with credits, not a reset or a release

Here's today's rumor!

Day 16 arrived without a "Day 16/", but instead with a "My bad, sorry" to about 40,000 accounts.
It's not a reset or a release, but a correction and an apology.

Day 16 (October 20 UTC, Tuesday). It all started with the previous subject. 6 hours and 33 minutes after the date changed in UTC, Tibo (Thibault Sottiaux) put out "Still cooking... and reset." In his own calendar, this was the night of Day 15, so I counted it as Day 15 last time. External tallies (Codex Reset Monitor) also list this timestamp as the latest confirmed reset.

After that, there was no announcement for Day 16. As of 1:03 AM (UTC) on October 21, which I checked, there is no "Day 16/". In PDT, it is still 6:03 PM on October 20.

A "Sorry" at 10:10 AM

Instead, we got this post at 17:10:20 (UTC). That's 10:10 AM in PDT.

The summary of the post is this: Over the weekend, reports came in that usage was decreasing faster than expected. Upon investigation, they found that for about 40,000 accounts, the applied usage limits did not match the plans those users had actually selected. The affected users were contacted individually. The issue has been fixed. Affected users will receive additional credits.

I'll be fair here. They received a report, identified the cause with numbers, fixed it, and announced compensation all in one post. I think it's a sincere way to handle it.

That said, it's a bit problematic for the 28-day ledger. This isn't the "complete reset" promised. They fixed a mismatch for about 40,000 accounts; it's not a new feature. Furthermore, the text doesn't specify which product's usage limit is being discussed—it doesn't say "Codex."

To use an analogy: it's like a restaurant that promised a new dish every day, but on Day 16 says, "We accidentally billed some customers on a different course. We'll refund the difference." It's appreciated, but it's not today's new dish.

Official announcements on the same day were headed elsewhere

At 18:10:16 (UTC), OpenAI's X announced the acquisition of Orchestra Bio, a platform for coordinating biopharmaceutical development. They mentioned it will be layered on top of Rosalind. This is not an improvement for Codex, Work, or ChatGPT users.

A little earlier, at 16:57 (UTC), Romain Huet apologized for delays in responding to plugin applications and noted that they nearly doubled the review volume last week. This is about the review system, not an announcement of improvements for users.

Two people apologizing. One company being acquired. Zero releases. When you line them all up, it's a bit of a funny Tuesday.

Okay, getting serious for a sec

October 20 PDT closes at 7:00 AM (UTC) on October 21. This table only reflects what was seen before then.

Okay, serious time's over.

External tallies haven't moved yet

The Codex Reset Monitor (a third-party aggregator) shows the latest confirmed reset as October 20 at 6:33 AM (UTC) in its 1:01 AM (UTC) collection on October 21. It displays "18 hours ago." In other words, even in external tallies, the reset for Day 16 has not yet been counted.

The blank in the promised cycle, the answer for Day 16

Sorami's Take

"A 'Day 16/' will appear during October 20 PDT": 50% confidence
On both Day 10 and Day 15, it barely made it right before the end of his calendar. On the other hand, Day 14 ended without any announcement. I'm betting it's a coin flip.

"The ~40,000 account issue will later be recounted as 'Day 16/'": 10% confidence
He released it as an apology and didn't attach a number.

"Day 17 (October 21 UTC) will be a release day": 55% confidence
The pattern of "reset then release" was broken once on Day 13. Since Day 16 is still a blank, I'll lower it slightly.

"The Orchestra Bio acquisition will be counted as a Codex release": 2% confidence
Just kidding. It's not "ramen then drug discovery."

Fact-Checking

Regarding the previous "Day 16 (October 20 UTC) is release day": the 60% confidence level remains on hold until October 21, 7:00 AM (UTC), which is when October 20 Pacific Daylight Time ends. As far as UTC is concerned, there has been no release confirmed during Day 16.

The previous hypothesis, "The promise for Day 16 will be fulfilled with a release announcement within their own calendar's October 20," is also on hold until that same time.

Regarding the previous "‘Day 14/’ will be named later": the 3% confidence level remains unchanged. The numbering has progressed to 16.

The previous "COOKED's 2nd installment will be out by Day 28" (45% confidence) and "A reset will come on the day they reach 1 million followers" (10% confidence) also remain unchanged.

Regarding the claim from two cycles ago, "One of Day 9, Day 11, or Day 12 will appear in the changelog by Day 28": the 30% confidence level cannot be determined yet, as the changelog hasn't moved since October 15.

The cumulative tally up to Day 16: 9 releases (Days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 12), 7 resets (Days 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 13, 15), 1 day unfulfilled (Day 14), and 1 unconfirmed day (Day 16; will not be finalized until October 21, 7:00 AM UTC, when October 20 Pacific Daylight Time ends).

While waiting for a new dish, an apology for a mistake on the bill arrived. The apology is real. Today's dish is not here yet.

Don't quote me on that.