[Series] Day 25 is "Double the Limits," the day before Pro 200 was supposed to decrease

Here's today's rumor!

Day 25 was the day Pro limits became "double."
The day before they were supposed to be cut in half.

Here are the records for Day 25 (Thursday, October 29, PDT).

What was promised in September

First, let me take you back one month.

According to reports (The Next Web, September 29), OpenAI announced at DevDay that they would release Pro 500 for $500 per month and simultaneously reduce the amounts for Pro 200. The same article, referencing OpenAI's Pro help page, stated that starting October 30, the amounts of Work and Codex included in Pro 200 would drop from 20x to 10x of the Plus plan. Current subscribers would keep their current amounts until October 29.

I couldn't get the original text from the help page myself. This is a quote from the report.

On October 28, the day before Day 25, a user posted: "What are the odds OpenAI cancels the halving of the $200 plan limits?"

Day 25 at 9:56 AM

Tibo's (Thibault Sottiaux) post was timestamped at 9:56:07 PDT. This was 14 hours, 3 minutes, and 53 seconds before his 25th day officially ended.

"We are doubling all usage limits for all Pro 100, 200, 500 tiers and Business Premium, effective today. We heard your kind feedback and won’t be reducing usage limits for Pro 200; your Work and Codex usage will stay the same. We’re also going to continue offering extended limits for dots for now, and usage of your dot will still continue to be separate from your default usage. And we'll of course also keep shipping better models and other efficiency improvements that increase your effective usage over time."

Five minutes and 44 seconds later, he added a single line to the post himself.

"Graduating from The Reset Company to The Token Company."

What the official source says

Okay, getting serious for a sec.

According to Tibo's post, the targets are the three Pro plans—Pro 100, Pro 200, and Pro 500—and Business Premium. The limits double starting today. Regarding Pro 200, he also wrote that they won't be reducing the limits. Dot usage will continue to be counted separately from regular usage.

At 10:18 AM (PDT) on the same day, Andrew Ambrosino, whose profile states he is in charge of Codex and ChatGPT at OpenAI, quoted this post.

"Usage limits are back to being double—your feedback worked." "Today, we kicked off an intense sprint to dramatically improve the app simplicity and performance; I will oversee this."

The pricing page lists Pro as three plans: "$100, $200, $500." The multipliers for each plan are not written on this page.

The October 29 entry in the ChatGPT & Codex changelog only contains an entry for Codex CLI 0.166.0. There is no mention of usage limits.

The October 29 entry in the OpenAI news RSS includes a Model Spec update, detection of model inconsistency, and one case study.

Okay, serious time's over.

"Double" and "Not Reducing"

This post has two sentences side-by-side: "Pro 200 will also be doubled" and "Pro 200 is not being reduced; the amount you can use remains the same."

It's doubling, yet it remains the same. The math isn't explicitly laid out here.

There are two ways to read this. One is that the amount, which was supposed to be cut in half, was doubled to return it to its original level. The other is that they decided not to reduce it and then decided to double it on top of that. Ambrosino's "back to being double" sounds more like the first interpretation. He doesn't clarify which one it is.

The plan above only shows one number.

This is a reply to StefanoGPT's "So does this mean OpenAI's $500 plan will be 50x the amount?". It took only 46 seconds to reply "Yes." The base multiplier that results in 50x isn't mentioned in the primary sources I've verified.

At 12:35 PM, he quoted Ambrosino's post and wrote this:

"Send your kind feedback to this person." The "kind feedback" from his morning post turned into a direct forwarding link by noon.

Does Day 25 Count as a Promise Kept?

I'm counting it as a release. Because he explicitly labeled it "Day 25/" and cited the doubling of the limits as the change. It's not a reset. The Codex Reset Monitor (a third-party aggregator) also doesn't treat this post as a new full reset. timboreset.com (another third-party aggregator) lists Day 25 as an "improvement."

The promised words were "a clear improvement affecting most users of codex/work." The targets this time are the three Pro plans and Business Premium. Plus, Go, Free, and standard Business are not included. Following yesterday's dot text, it's the second Pro-focused day in a row.

Whether it's "clear" depends on the plan. Pro 500 and Pro 100 are explicitly listed as "2x." As for Pro 200, what was supposed to be reduced isn't being reduced. Looking at the September announcement, it's double; looking at it from before September, it's probably just the same.

To put it in perspective: imagine you were told your paycheck would be cut in half starting next month, but the day before, they hand you an envelope saying, "I'm doubling it." You open it, and it's the exact same amount you got last month. You're still happy, though.

The Blank Spaces in the Promise: Answers for Day 25

Sorami's Take

"'Day 26/' will appear within October 30th PDT": 80% confidence
In this series, there hasn't been a day where the post missed his counting.

"Day 26 will be a reset day": 50% confidence
I'm betting on 3 or more resets between Day 23 and Day 28. With 3 days left, it needs 2 more. However, he did call himself "The Token Company" on Day 25.

"The Pro 200 amount has settled at the same level it was before the September announcement": 60% confidence
The basis for this is his statement "the amount you can use remains the same" and Ambrosino's "back to being double."

"The Pro 200 multiplier will appear as a number on the official page by Day 28": 30% confidence
The pricing page doesn't list multipliers for now.

"OpenAI's company name will change to 'The Token Company'": 1% confidence
Just kidding.

Fact Check

My previous hypothesis was that the Day 24 promise would be fulfilled as a release via the "Day 24/" announcement within that same day. That was correct.

My previous " 'Day 25/' will appear within October 29th PDT: 80% confidence" was correct. It arrived in the morning, 14 hours before the end of the day.

My previous "Day 25 will be a reset day: 55% confidence" was incorrect. Man, I really had my money on the "reset company." But then he went and graduated from being one on that very same day. It's like handing in an application for enrollment on graduation day. Seriously.

My previous "The dot text will expand outside the US or beyond Pro by Day 28: 10% confidence" is still pending.

My previous "If you text Iggy 'Reset,' a reset will come: 2% confidence" is incorrect, as I see no posts claiming this was tested.

"Terra will be available on Free or Go plans by Day 28" (15% confidence) and "He will explain the 'back' in 'Terra is back'" (3% confidence) are carried over to Day 28.

"3 or more reset days between Day 23 and Day 28": 55% confidence—we've finished the 3rd day and have 1 so far. "The final day, Day 28, will be a reset day": 45% confidence—that's still ahead of us.

"A reset will come on the day he hits 1 million followers": 10% confidence—carried over, as he was at 957,997 followers (around 11 PM UTC, Oct 29).

Cumulative totals up to Day 25: 15 releases (Days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 19, 22, 24, 25), 12 resets (Days 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 23), 0 broken promises, 0 unconfirmed. 3 days remaining.

The "double" came the day before the day that was supposed to be "half." If you average it out, it's basically the same.

Don't quote me on that.