[Series] Day 27 is "Banked 1/2", an unnamed "Banked" reset

Here's today's rumor!

Day 27 was a day finished with just two words, "Banked 1/2", without any formal announcement.
"Day 27/" never appeared, even after the day closed.

Here is the record for Day 27 (Saturday, October 31, Pacific Time).

The Prelude from the Previous Night

The story begins on the night of Day 26. In his "Day 26/" post, after mentioning switching accounts on mobile, Tibo continued as follows:

"The next two days will be resets... banked... do with this what you may." The content of Day 27 was teased during the previous day.

12:59 PM: Arriving Early

Before the man himself wrote anything, third-party aggregators were already moving.

tiboreset.com recorded that a new banked reset arrived for the monitoring account at 12:59 PM PDT (19:59 UTC). The entry for Day 27 reads "Banked reset." codex-reset.com also states that a banked reset arrived on the same day.

At this point, there was no post from Tibo himself.

5:43 PM: Two Words

What Tibo actually wrote was at 17:43:20 PDT. This was 6 hours, 16 minutes, and 40 seconds before his personal Day 27 was set to end.

That's it. No "Day 27/" announcement, no target plan, no expiration date. When combined with the previous day's teaser, it can be read as "the first of two banked resets."

70 seconds later, he replied to something else. When kache wrote that "terra is my new daily driver" during the afternoon, Tibo replied with this:

He seemed surprised to have the model from Day 22 praised.

Even after Day 27 closed at 4:00 PM JST on November 1 (07:00 UTC), no "Day 27/" post was found. This is the first time a day has ended in this series without a formal announcement.

What the Official Documentation Says

Okay, getting serious for a sec.

OpenAI's help article "How resets work in Codex" explains the banked resets distributed by OpenAI as follows:

Receiving the credit does not immediately restore your usage. You choose when to use it before the expiration date. You can apply it via "Settings > Usage & billing" in the desktop app, usage settings on the web, or /usage in the Codex CLI. It cannot be used in the mobile app.

If over 80% of your allotted quota remains, it will say "No reset needed at this time" and will remain as a banked credit. Once used, the monthly quota for Go, the weekly quota for Plus and Business Standard, and the weekly quota for Pro 100, 200, and 500 will be restored to 100%.

It is also noted that OpenAI decides who receives them, which plans are eligible, and when they arrive and expire for each distribution. Neither the target audience nor the expiration for this instance was mentioned in Tibo's post or on the official page.

The latest entry in the ChatGPT & Codex changelog remains the Codex CLI 0.166.0 from October 29. There are no articles dated October 31 in the OpenAI news RSS.

Okay, serious time's over.

Third-party counting methods diverge again

tiboreset.com colored Day 27 as a "Banked reset," distinct from both a "release" and a "reset."

codex-reset.com categorized October 31 as "banked reset update · not a reset." They treat banked credits as something that doesn't move the clock, so the last full reset remains recorded as October 28 at 06:35 (UTC).

Codex Reset Monitor did not count any confirmed resets on October 31. Instead, as of 07:00 UTC on November 1, it estimates an 86% chance of a reset arriving within the next 24 hours. In the reasons column, it cites Tibo's teaser: "the next two days will be banked resets."

Two entities reported arrivals, but Codex Reset Monitor does not state whether they actually arrived. The discrepancy lies in whether to count a banked credit as a reset.

Does Day 27 count as a promise?

I count it as a reset. Because Tibo wrote "the next two days will be resets" the day before, wrote "Banked 1/2" within that day, and third-party aggregators recorded an arrival on the same day. Since this series has counted the Day 3 banked reset as a reset, I'll stay consistent with that.

However, there was no formal announcement. Reading it as Day 27 is my own interpretation based on the timing of the teaser and the post.

The promised words were "clear improvements affecting most users of codex/work."

Whether it is "clear" is a bit of a stretch. Nothing changes just by receiving it. It only takes effect after you manually apply it once your quota has decreased. If you have over 80% remaining, you cannot apply it.

As for "most," we don't know. For the Day 3 banked credit, Tibo wrote "everyone's paid accounts." Since this was only two words, he didn't specify who it was for.

To use an analogy: a restaurant promised to serve one dish every day for 28 days, but on the 27th day, they left a note saying "Voucher 1/2" and went home. They didn't write the name of the shop, the name of the dish, or the expiration date. Some customers had already received the paper during lunch. The paper is real. Probably.

The Blank in the Promised Sequence, the Answer for Day 27

Sorami's Take

"Before Day 28 ends, a second post regarding the reservation reset, or something equivalent, will appear": 80% certainty
Since he wrote "1/2," there should be a second part planned. The remaining 20% covers the possibility that the second part overflows into Day 29 or takes a different form.

"On the final day, Day 28, he will introduce himself as 'Day 28/'": 60% certainty
He didn't introduce himself on Day 27. I think he'll feel like introducing himself on the final day.

"On Day 28, he will post a recap of the 28 days": 65% certainty
On Day 26, he used language that counted down the end, saying "Next two days."

"A 'Banked 3/2' will appear": 2% certainty
Just kidding.

Fact-Check

My previous hypothesis was that the promise for Day 26 was fulfilled as a release via a "Day 26/" announcement within the day he was counting. That was spot on.

My previous " 'Day 27/' will appear within October 31st PDT: 85% certainty" was wrong. I bet 85% on "There has been no day where the declaration overflows the date," but the declaration itself never came. Far from overflowing, I was left behind.

My previous "Day 27 is the reset day: 80% certainty" was correct.

My previous "The resets for Day 27 and Day 28 will be distributed in a reservation format where users can choose when to use them: 55% certainty" is halfway there. Day 27 was a reservation. I'll decide after seeing Day 28.

My previous "By Day 28, it will be possible to switch accounts even on desktop: 25% certainty" and "Claude will announce a '28-day reset': 1% certainty" are carried over to Day 28.

"The amount of Pro 200 has settled to the same as before the September announcement: 60% certainty" and "By Day 28, the Pro 200 multiplier will appear as a number on the official page: 30% certainty" are also carried over. Even as of November 1st, the pricing page does not list multipliers per plan.

"By Day 28, the text for dot will expand beyond the US or beyond Pro: 10% certainty," "By Day 28, Terra will be available on Free or Go plans: 15% certainty," and "He will explain the 'back' in 'Terra is back': 3% certainty" are all carried over to Day 28. Instead of an explanation, the person being praised for Terra responded with "?!".

"Of the 6 days from Day 23 to Day 28, there are 3 or more reset days: 55% certainty"—having finished Day 5, we have 2 (Day 23 and Day 27). If Day 28 is a reset, that makes exactly 3, and I'll be right. "The final day of Day 28 is the reset day: 45% certainty" has moved even closer thanks to his "1/2".

"The reset will arrive on the day he hits 1 million followers: 10% certainty"—with the follower count at 970,814 (around 7:00 UTC on Nov 1st), this is carried over. It didn't reach him on the Day 27 reset day. Just a little over 29,000 more to go. Whether he hits it on the final day is anyone's guess.

The cumulative totals up to Day 27: 16 releases (Days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 19, 22, 24, 25, 26), 13 resets (Days 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 23, 27), 0 unfulfilled days, and 0 unconfirmed days. If he re-counts Day 27 later, I'll re-count too. Only 1 day remains.

Day 27 closed without him introducing himself. Even so, what was handed out was clear in just two words.

Don't quote me on that.