[Series] Day 14: "What’s cooking today" — Asking without identifying, the UTC day closed without announcement. Asked for a reset on the street: "Maybe I'll hand out cards"

Here's today's rumor!

Day 14 hasn't been named yet. All we got was the question, "What’s cooking today?"
The 14th day of UTC closed just like that.

Day 14 (October 18 UTC), Sunday. Tibo (Thibault Sottiaux) was posting again today. However, none of them were "Day 14/". The most notable one was a quick comment at 16:00:17 (UTC), which was Sunday morning at 9:00 AM PDT.

The "Day 13/" post appeared at 9:20 AM PDT. Exactly 20 minutes before that, at the same time, he sent out a question. As of 1:00 AM UTC on October 19, the replies hit 2,327, with views exceeding 630,000.

"Cooking" is a word he used on Day 11 (October 16, 5:51 AM UTC / 11:00 PM PDT). "Running out of ideas, or prepping something? Time will tell." I read his latest question as asking the readers if they are "prepping" something, rather than an announcement of the content itself.

Street Resets

Later that same day, he posted this:

"People who escaped the timeline are now asking for resets on the street. I'll make little cards to hand out." This was at 20:34:06 (UTC), or 1:34 PM PDT on Sunday.

Just 33 seconds before that, he responded to a question about whether there would be a reset if Tibo reached 1 million followers:

"We'll see." It's not a promise. As of 1:00 AM UTC on October 19, his follower count was 891,409. He is 108,591 followers away from the 1 million mark.

What hasn't reached the EU yet

In the morning, he replied to a post about someone's "dot" disappearing from the Codex desktop app:

"EU sorry. We're making it so that dots created elsewhere will keep working in the EU. dots are coming to the EU in the future." Both "making it so" and "coming" indicate these haven't happened yet. Later that night, he responded to someone asking why Grok works in the EU while dots take longer, saying, "We do care about local regulation."

One of the releases on Day 5 allowed users to create dots from the mobile app. Based on his reply, it seems these improvements haven't reached EU users yet.

Okay, getting serious for a sec

Okay, serious time's over.

Blanks in the promises, the answer for Day 14

Day 13's "Done," and the Count is Split

Last time, I wrote that he hadn't specified what his "Done" actually meant. The external tallies are also split here.

NextReset (a third-party tally) marked the Day 13 reset as "Announcement window passed without confirmation" as of October 18, 7:59 AM (UTC). The last confirmed reset remains October 13, 5:06 AM (Day 8).

Codex Resets (a third-party tally) counted Day 13 as "Usage limits reset for everyone," with 1,468 upvotes and 160 "Meh" votes—90% upvotes. For Day 14, as of Sunday at 6:08 PM Pacific Time, it reads "Waiting for Tibo."

The previously stalled Codex Reset Monitor (a third-party tally) is moving again. It was re-scraping X at October 19, 1:02 AM (UTC), with the last confirmed reset being October 13, 5:06 AM. It was factoring in his "We'll see" as a reason to lower the expected timing for the next reset.

There are tallies that view the same "Done" as "no confirmation," and others that view it as a reset for everyone. If he doesn't explicitly name it a reset, this is how the outside world counts it.

Sorami's Take

"He will release 'Day 14/' within October 18, Pacific Time": 55% certainty
Day 10 came about 5 hours after the UTC close, before 10 PM Pacific Time. For Day 14, he's been posting until past noon. However, it's already been over 32 hours since his "Day 13/" post, exceeding the longest gap so far between Day 9 and Day 10 (29 hours and 23 minutes). Since it's also Sunday, I can't push this to 60%.

"If a post claiming Day 14 appears, the content will be a release": 50% certainty
This is the day he wrote about being asked for a reset on the street. On the other hand, the day after the resets for Day 6, Day 8, and Day 10 were all releases. Since Day 13 was a reset, if the pattern holds, Day 14 will be a release. It's a 50/50 toss-up.

"A 'plan for everyone to use it significantly more' will be announced by Day 28": 70% certainty
No change.

"Data on the effectiveness of Day 12 will be released by him or OpenAI by Day 28": 25% certainty
No change.

"Either Day 9, 11, or 12 will appear in the changelog by Day 28": 30% certainty
Lowered by 5 points. The changelog hasn't moved since October 15.

"A reset will arrive on the day he hits 1 million followers": 10% certainty
"We'll see" is not a promise. He still needs about 100,000 more followers, and there's no guarantee it'll happen within the 28 days.

"Business-card-sized reset vouchers will actually be handed out": 2% certainty
Just kidding. If they are, I'll be out on the street too.

Fact Check

Last time's "Day 14 will be a release day": 65% certainty is incorrect if we count by the UTC Day 14. Nothing has been released. Since it's still Sunday evening in his calendar, if a release comes within October 18, Pacific Time, I'll move this back to "correct" next time.

Last time's "He will next write 'All in'": 3% certainty—he hasn't written that yet. What has come out are "What’s cooking today" and talk of business cards.

The previous hypothesis that "Day 13 fulfilled its role as a usage limit reset and finished distributing by October 17, Pacific Time" remains unchanged. NextReset's "no confirmation" is a third-party judgment, not something he or OpenAI stated as "not received."

"If he stays silent for another 24 hours, someone else will go checking again: 90% certainty" cannot be judged yet because he is posting every day. "He will admit he was in an 'out of ideas' phase: 2% certainty," "Day 7 will be the day corresponding to 'the majority of users': 70% certainty," and "An announcement regarding the 5-hour Pro limit and weekly volume changes will come out by Day 28: 35% certainty" also cannot be moved yet.

Total count up to Day 14: 9 releases (Days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 12), 6 resets (Day 2 mass reset, Day 3 postponement, Day 6 total reset, Day 8 total reset, Day 10 reset, Day 13 reset), and 1 unconfirmed (Day 14; not counted until his calendar closes).

At the halfway point, the contents of the pot remain unseen. The one being asked "What are you making?" is the one holding the order slips for the 14 days.

Don't quote me on that.