English

NewsDan LuEdward Zitron

Verifying AI Skeptic Predictions Through Performance Analysis of Meta and Google

This article is a translation. Read the Japanese original

Software engineer Dan Lu has examined the validity of predictions regarding AI made by Edward Zitron.

At a 2024 conference, Zitron stated that "Meta, Google, and Microsoft are dying," pointing out that major tech companies have lost their way in terms of growth and are now focusing on AI as a result.

In response, Lu has countered this claim by investigating financial performance since 2023. Meta has maintained strong performance, and Alphabet (Google) recorded a 30% year-on-year increase in profits in the first half of 2026 alone.

Lu stated that given this growth, Zitron's assertions regarding the growth strategies of major corporations are incorrect.

Additionally, Zitron had predicted a "decline due to the degradation of services" and the "impossibility of model improvement due to the exhaustion of training data."

Lu analyzed that the degradation of services does not necessarily mean decline, citing the fact that Google's design changes to ad placements are generating revenue. Furthermore, against the backdrop of the continuous emergence of high-precision AI models, he pointed out that the predictions regarding the exhaustion of training data were also wrong.


Source: AI懐疑論者の予測はどれぐらい正確だったか? (GIGAZINE, 2026-09-03)