On September 9, researchers at Anthropic released a report analyzing the impact of AI on the U.S. economy, presenting three scenarios based on the speed of AI evolution and adoption. These scenarios are categorized as "Modest," "Significant," and "Extreme."

According to the report, while AI may possess the capability to handle half of knowledge work, it is assumed that most tasks will still be performed without AI. Regarding the economic impact, the projected GDP growth rate by 2030 is 1.6% for the "Modest" scenario, 8.3% for the "Significant" scenario, and 32.4% for the "Extreme" scenario.

The report also outlines the impact on employment for each scenario. In the case of "Significant" adoption, wages for knowledge workers are expected to remain nearly flat (a 0.3% decrease), while wages for other workers are projected to increase by 5.9%, with an overall unemployment rate of 4.6%. Conversely, in the "Extreme" scenario, wages for knowledge workers are calculated to decrease by 11.5%, with unemployment rates rising to 17.9% for knowledge workers and 11.9% overall.

Anthropic stated that these projections do not account for policy responses, business cycles, financial market disruptions, or the realization of ultra-high-performance robots, and noted that the report faces challenges similar to those of other economic models.

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