AI Adoption in Workplace Shows No Significant Impact on Recent College Graduate Unemployment in Summer 2026

Using detailed microdata from the US Census’ Current Population Survey, researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu examined unemployment trends for recent college graduates (Bachelor's degree recipients aged 22 to 25) during the summer months of 2026. The study found that the summer unemployment rate for this group was 7.3 percent, which falls within the historical range observed in previous years (6.3 percent in 2022 to 7.8 percent in 2024).

The researchers used statistical tests to compare recent graduates with non-college graduates of the same age and older college graduates aged 30 to 49. In almost all comparisons, the differences in unemployment trends between 2022 and 2026 were not statistically significant. Even when using an expanded definition of unemployment that includes individuals who want a job but are not actively looking, the researchers found no statistically significant increase in unemployment for the summer of 2026.

The findings offer a different perspective from a previous Stanford University study based on ADP payroll data, which suggested that entry-level employment in AI-impacted occupations was lagging. The CESifo researchers noted that while firms are increasingly replacing tasks with AI and increasing AI-related spending, the current data does not yet show these shifts resulting in higher unemployment for recent graduates.