Anthropic's economic research team has developed a model to predict the impact of AI on employment, unemployment rates, and economic growth in the United States, and has published a webpage presenting the results.

The published projection model presents three scenarios based on the degree of AI advancement: a "modest scenario," where the impact is similar to the spread of the internet; a "substantial scenario," where AI takes over half of knowledge work; and an "extreme scenario," where AI achieves productivity exceeding that of humans and does not generate new knowledge work.

Anthropic points out that particularly in the "substantial" and "extreme" scenarios, many people may lose their jobs, and it could take time for them to find new employment. In the extreme scenario, the proportion of knowledge workers among the labor force is predicted to drop from 62.2% in 2026 to 48.7% by 2030.

Furthermore, the company states that in any of the scenarios, the proportion of economic growth benefits returned to workers as wages may be smaller compared to the proportion distributed to capital. While noting that these projections have limitations because the economic landscape will change significantly depending on the improvement of AI capabilities and the speed of adoption, the company said it will continue to update the model as new evidence becomes available.

Source: