AI development company Anthropic has constructed a model to predict the impact of AI on the US economy over the coming years and has released a corresponding webpage.

Based on the speed of AI capability improvements and adoption, this model predicts the economic situation in 2030 across three patterns: a "conservative scenario," a "substantial scenario," and an "extreme scenario." According to Anthropic, AI has the potential to not only support existing jobs but also create new ones, while pointing out that the nature of work in specific occupations will change significantly.

Specifically, the "substantial scenario" assumes that AI will handle half of all knowledge work by 2030, while the "extreme scenario" predicts that a vast majority of tasks will be delegated to AI to the extent that new knowledge work for humans is not created. The company stated that this model will be used as material for considering how the economic benefits brought by AI evolution can be widely shared across society.

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