Anthropic has published three economic scenarios summarizing the impact that artificial intelligence (AI) will have on US employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2030. The company's economic research team developed a model to analyze the effects of AI on employment, economic growth, and unemployment rates, presenting three cases: a "Gradual Scenario," a "Substantial Scenario," and a "Radical Scenario."

The company expressed the view that AI will not uniformly take away jobs, but rather that the support and automation of existing tasks will proceed in parallel with the creation of new tasks. For example, in the work of nurses, it explained that while documentation and ordering may be automated, new roles—such as reviewing plans suggested by AI—could emerge.

In the "Radical Scenario" among the presented options, it is estimated that the proliferation of AI would make the US GDP 32.4% higher by 2030 than it would be without AI, achieving an annual growth rate of 15%. On the other hand, the company predicts that the proportion of knowledge workers could decline from 62.2% in 2026 to 48.7% by 2030, and wages could fall by more than 10%.

Additionally, it pointed out that the expansion of the economic scale may not necessarily be distributed equally among workers. In the "Radical Scenario," calculations suggest that the labor share of GDP would drop to 45.2%, while the share allocated to capital would rise to 54.8%. Regarding these scenarios, the company emphasized that the results could vary depending on the speed of technology adoption and the method of profit distribution, stating that the model is intended to verify outcomes based on different assumptions.

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