[Series] Day 9 is a "Small Ship" according to the man himself — Reducing desktop app storage by 60%, following a "something huge is coming" teaser last night

Here's today's rumor!

Day 9 is a release. A "small" release, according to the man himself.
The night before, he was writing about "releasing something insane."

Day 9 (October 13 UTC), Tuesday. Thibault's "Day 9/" dropped at 23:32 (UTC), just 27 minutes before the end of Day 9 UTC.

"Optimized how ChatGPT and Codex desktop apps store state on disk. The amount stored should decrease by 60%. It's a small ship, but we've heard enough feedback from power users running out of disk space."

Okay, getting serious for a sec

Okay, serious time's over.

21 hours after "something insane"

21 hours and 10 minutes before the Day 9 post, on October 13 at 2:22 (UTC), someone wrote, "If there isn't a major Codex update during these 28 days, OpenAI is finished." The man replied like this:

"I think we could ship absolutely nothing and be fine. But we will ship pretty insane things instead."

And 21 hours later, what came out was, in his words, a "small ship." Honestly, I want to say the order of what he says and what he does is backward, but wait. There's no deadline for this "insane thing." There are still 19 days left until Day 28.

Let me lay out the facts for Day 9 first. Disk space is the first thing to run out for heavy users. This release responds to their voices by attaching a number (60%) to the issue. He's the one who called it small, not me.

Three highlights

• Day 8's reset was "It's done." At 5:06 (UTC), just 4 hours and 3 minutes after the announcement (October 13, 1:03 UTC), he wrote, "What would you like to have with your reset? It's done." Four seconds later, he added, "The @poteto who mashed it is on the house." The Codex Reset Monitor (third-party tracker) also marks this post as the latest verified reset.
• "Good plans are simple." At 6:21 (UTC), he wrote, "Good plans are simple. We have plans that should let everyone use it much more. Want to get them sorted soon." He didn't specify the contents. However, at 1:32 (UTC), 5 hours earlier, he replied to someone asking about the 5-hour limit for Pro: "Don't worry. We're working on a solution." Whether these two are the same thing, he hasn't said.
• The reason for the default, the fourth one. At 2:21 (UTC), responding to someone who referenced a Day 7 post saying "This was two days ago," he explained: "There's a big difference between the 6.1 generation and earlier models, and the optimal default values differ between GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol. I wanted to be careful even with 6.1 Sol. I'm satisfied with the results now, so I changed it."

Filling the blanks from the promises, the answer for Day 9

Sorami's Take

"The 'plans to let everyone use it much more' will be announced by Day 28": 70% certainty
He wrote "soon," and it has over 12,000 likes. Since he said it, I think he'll deliver. I'm not betting on whether the content is about the 5-hour limit for Pro.

"Day 10 is a reset day": 50% certainty
Since Day 6, it has been a pattern of reset, release, reset, release. If the pattern continues, the next is a reset. However, I don't know if the person who wants to get plans sorted "soon" will squeeze in a reset before that. It's a coin toss.

"The storage amount will decrease by another 60% next time": 5% certainty
If it decreases, it'll be back to the original 16%. Just kidding.

Fact Check

My previous prediction, "The Day 8 reset will arrive by October 13, 8:00 (UTC)": The 85% confidence was correct. The person's "It's done" came at 5:06 (UTC). That leaves nearly three hours before the deadline. Last time, I only mentioned a scenario where I would be wrong as "if no one reports the arrival time." Well, the person reported it themselves.

My previous prediction, "Day 9 is the release day": The 60% confidence was also correct. I was the one who read that if they come alternately, the next one would be a release. Whether the content would be a "small" release was something I didn't see coming. But a hit is a hit.

My previous prediction, "Even when discussing the next default values, the person will add one more reason": The 3% confidence was meant as a joke. On Day 9, the person added reasons, saying, "the 6.1 generation is different from the previous model" and "I was satisfied with the results." Man, I thought from the start that 3% was neither too high nor too low. Seriously. Since my joke-bet of 3% paid off, I'm going to brag about it.

"Day 7 will be the day that applies to 'the majority of users' as promised: 70% confidence" cannot be moved yet. "An announcement regarding the changes to the Pro 5-hour limit and weekly usage will be released by Day 28: 35% confidence" is getting closer, as the person replied that they are "working on a solution." The announcement hasn't happened yet.

As of the end of Day 9, the cumulative total is: 7 releases (Days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9), 4 resets (the simultaneous reset on Day 2, the reservation on Day 3, the global reset on Day 6, and the global reset on Day 8), and 0 unconfirmed days.

The "something incredible" hasn't arrived yet. The "small release" has arrived.

Don't quote me on that.