OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has entered into massive contracts with major companies including Oracle, Nvidia, and Microsoft. The company anticipates spending $1.4 trillion on data centers over the coming years. This is a staggering figure compared to the projected revenue of $20 billion for the current fiscal year.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar suggested at an event this week that the government might act as a "backstop" for these commitments, though she later retracted the statement. Meanwhile, Altman stated in a post on X that if the company fails and cannot correct the situation, "other companies should take over the customer service."
Thomas Tungz of Theory Ventures analyzed that for OpenAI to fulfill these commitments, its revenue would need to grow to approximately $577 billion by 2029. This would represent a surge of about 2,900% from the 2025 projections.
Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, pointed out a scenario where OpenAI might only utilize a portion of the reserved computing resources. In such a case, companies like Oracle and Amazon would likely renegotiate contracts to secure a minimum level of business. The incentive for renegotiation is high, as these providers do not want OpenAI to collapse.
Data center contracts are complex and typically based on usage-based billing. The "large numbers" often announced frequently include variables such as stock price fluctuations and construction costs, making them larger than the actual contract value. For example, OpenAI has a contract to exchange 10% equity for up to 6GW of AMD chips (equivalent to approximately $90 billion), but no cash changes hands. This depends on technical milestones and stock prices.
There is also the possibility that infrastructure providers may fail to deliver on time due to constraints in power supply or chip availability. The $22.4 billion contract with CoreWeave includes clauses allowing either party to terminate the agreement for "just cause" in the event of delays or other issues.
For Altman, the greatest risk is reportedly the inability to access affordable computing resources. A shortage of the compute power required for model training and inference would be fatal to revenue growth. He has stated that "the risk of not having enough compute is more important and more likely than the risk of having too much." The company is also reportedly considering methods to sell compute directly to other parties, similar to CoreWeave.
Source: Why Sam Altman Won't Be on the Hook for OpenAI's Spending Spree（HN 78pt・94コメント）（HN Search (backfill), 2025-11-08）